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RAINMUMBAI Tracker
How much of NCDEX's rainfall-futures contract is already locked in by rain that's fallen — and where past years went from here.
An independent, informational tool built on Historical Burn Analysis, the standard method the weather-derivatives industry runs on.
baseline: IMD officiallive: —
Where the numbers come from
The contract settles on rainfall, so this tool tracks rainfall directly. Two sources, clearly separated:
IMD
The 30-year history (1991–2020) is the India Meteorological Department's official gridded daily rainfall (0.25° gauge analysis, IMD Pune), downloaded and read directly. This builds the "normal" line and the range of past outcomes.
LIVE
This year's rain so far uses a live weather feed (Open-Meteo) as a stand-in, because IMD hasn't published the current year's official grid yet — it does so only after a long lag. The badge above shows how recent the live data is.
Note on prices: this tool does not read live trade prices from NCDEX. NCDEX's contract terms (the anchor, ₹50/mm, season dates, monthly expiries) are fixed published specifications, so they're built in. The contract is brand-new with little trading, and showing a price would turn this into pricing/advice — which it deliberately isn't. Instead it reconstructs the official settlement index from the underlying rainfall.
Not a forecast. Not investment advice. Not affiliated with NCDEX. This tool only describes what rain has already fallen and what historically followed. It never tells you to buy, sell or hold, never gives a price target, and never labels the contract cheap or expensive.
Contract
Starting up…
Where past years went from here
Solid line = locked in so far. Shaded fan = the spread of all 30 baseline years (1991–2020) replayed over the days that remain.
How do I read this chart?
Think of it as "the past has happened; the future is a fan of possibilities."
The solid dark line is real, recorded rain as the contract's running number (the spot). It can't change.
The shaded fan is where the number would have ended if the days still left behaved like each of the last 30 years — top edge = wettest, bottom = driest, dashed line = the middle year.
The fan widens to the right — that's the full spread of where the contract could still finish from today. As the season goes on and more rain locks in, the fan starts later each day and shrinks toward a single point at expiry.
Locked inRange of past 30 yearsMedian past year
1. A guide, not a guaranteeBased on 1991–2020 rainfall. Monsoons are shifting (El Niño, climate change), so past years are a guide — not a promise.
2. A range, never one numberWith only 30 years of history, the honest answer is a spread. You'll never see "settlement will be X" here.
3. Not a forecast or adviceThis describes what happened and what historically followed. It doesn't predict, price, or recommend anything.
Season so far — running wet or dry?
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How do I read this chart?
The flat grey line is "normal" — where the contract sits if rain is exactly average (the LPA anchor, 2206.7), drawn across the whole season.
The blue line is this year so far. Above grey = wetter than normal; below = drier. Early in the season it's short — it grows as the monsoon progresses.
How unusual is this start?
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This compares this year's rain so far (live feed) against each of the 30 IMD baseline years at the same point in the calendar, and counts how many were drier.
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If this contract had existed, how did each year end?
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How do I read this chart?
Each bar is one historical year. Its height is where this contract would have settled that year, reconstructed from real IMD rainfall and NCDEX's settlement formula.
The horizontal line is normal (2206.7). Blue = settled wetter than normal, red = drier.
The solid bars (1991–2020) are the official baseline. The faint bars (2021–2025) are recent years — see the note below.
It shows the natural spread of outcomes — history, not a prediction.
About the faint 2021–2025 bars. These are shown for recent context only — so you can see how the monsoon has behaved lately under a changing climate. They are not part of the contract. The contract's "normal" (the 2206.7 mm anchor) and every number used to price, benchmark or settle it are defined on the official 1991–2020 30-year period only. Recent years are measured against that normal but never change it — adding them to the baseline would shift "normal" away from the exchange's official figure.
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Does RAINMUMBAI match your region?
RAINMUMBAI tracks Mumbai rain only. If your risk is elsewhere, Mumbai may be a poor stand-in. Below: how closely each belt's monsoon moves with Mumbai's, 1991–2020, from IMD gridded data.
How do I read the "Moves with Mumbai" column?
It's a single number that answers one question: when Mumbai has a wet (or dry) monsoon, does this region usually swing the same way? It runs from −1 to 1:
0.7 – 1.0 — strongly together. They rise and fall almost in step, so the Mumbai contract is a good stand-in for your region.
0.3 – 0.6 — loosely linked. Same direction often, but not always: a moderate match.
0 – 0.3 — barely related. Different weather most years: a weak stand-in.
below 0 — they tend to move opposite (Mumbai wet ↔ this region dry). A poor hedge — the contract could move against you.
Example: Gujarat at 0.53 means Gujarat's wet and dry monsoons line up with Mumbai's about half the time — a moderate match, fine as a rough proxy but not a tight one.
If a region says data unavailable, the rainfall data was missing — we show nothing rather than a made-up number.
How should I use this tool?
What is this, in one sentence?
A read-only tracker showing how much of the RAINMUMBAI contract's outcome is already locked in by rain that's fallen, and the historical range of where the rest could land.
What is RAINMUMBAI?
India's first exchange-traded weather derivative — a rainfall futures contract on NCDEX. It settles on how much rain falls over Mumbai (Colaba + Santacruz) during the monsoon, 1 June – 30 September, at ₹50 per millimetre. There are four monthly contracts: June, July, August and September — use the selector above to switch between them.
How do I actually use it?
Pick a contract, then read top to bottom: the progress bar (how much is decided), the plain-English sentence (what's locked in and the historical range left), the fan chart (that range, visually), then the panels for context. Open "How do I read this chart?" under any graph if it isn't obvious.
Is this telling me whether to buy or sell?
No — and it never will. No price target, no cheap/expensive verdict, no buy/sell/hold. Any decision and its risk are entirely yours (or your advisor's).
Is the data the official IMD data?
The 30-year baseline is IMD's official gridded daily rainfall. The current season uses a live proxy until IMD publishes this year's grid. The contract settles on Colaba + Santacruz point gauges; IMD's 0.25° grid cell over Mumbai is very close but not identical, so treat absolute mm as near-official.
Why a range instead of a single number?
Monsoon rainfall is skewed with fat tails, and 30 years is a small sample. A single number would look more certain than reality allows — and edge into advice. The range is the honest output.
Contact us
Questions, feedback, or want to talk about future tools? Send us a note.